The estimated due date (EDD or EDC) is the
date that spontaneous onset of labor is expected to
occur. The accuracy of the due date will depend on the method used to calculate the date.
With the exception of pregnancies conceived through in vitro fertilization
the most accurate method for establishing a due date is generally an ultrasound performed
during the first trimester.
The due date may be estimated by adding 280 days ( 9 months and 7 days) to
the first day of the last menstrual period (LMP). This is the method used by
"pregnancy wheels". The accuracy
of the EDD derived by this method depends on accurate recall by the mother of
her last LMP, assumes regular 28 day cycles, and that
conception occurs on day 14 of the cycle with no variability.
Ultrasound uses the size of the fetus to determine the gestational age (the
time elapsed since the the first day of the last menstrual period). Since most
babies grow at a similar rate during the first trimester the due date can be
calculated to within +/- 3 to 5 days using this method. As the baby grows
the size of the baby becomes a much less accurate method of determining the
gestational age, because factors such as the parent's height and maternal
diabetes cause babies to grow at different rates.
By 20 weeks' the error is +/- 7 to 10 days which is
still acceptable for establishing a due date. However, the error becomes
progressively greater as the baby grows so that by 32 weeks the error has
increased +/- 3 weeks making the measurement too inaccurate for establishing a
due date.
In cases where the date of conception is known precisely,
such as with in vitro fertilization, the EDD is calculated by adding 266 days to
the date of conception.